Institute for International Economic Policy



Aaronson, Susan , “Does the WTO Help Nations Clean Up? The WTO as an Anticorruption Counterweight” forthcoming , World Trade Review

Smith, Stephen C. with M. Shahe Emran and Virginia Robano, "Assessing the Frontiers of Ultra-Poverty Reduction: Evidence from CFPR/TUP, an Innovative Program in Bangladesh," Economic Development and Cultural Change, forthcoming.

Smith, Stephen C. with Sungil Kwak, "Regional Agricultural Endowments and Shifts of Poverty Trap Equilibria: Evidence from Ethiopian Panel Data," Journal of Development Studies, forthcoming.

Carrillo, Paul E. with M. Shahe Emran, "Public Information and Inflation Expectations: Microeconometric Evidence from a Natural Experiment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming.

Carrillo, Paul E. "An Empirical Stationary Equilibrium Search Model of the Housing Market," International Economic Review, forthcoming.

Carrillo, Paul E. "To Sell or Not to Sell: Measuring the Heat of the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, forthcoming.

Chen, Maggie Xiaoyang with Alfaro, Laura "Surviving the Global Financial Crisis: Foreign Ownership and Establishment Performance," American Economic Journal, Economic Policy, forthcoming.

Chen, Maggie Xiaoyang "The Matching of Heterogeneous Firms and Politicians," Economic Inquiry, forthcoming.

Fostel, Ana with John Geanakopolos, "Tranching, CDS and Asset Prices: How Financial Innovation can Cause Bubbles and Crashes," forthcoming in American Economic Journal, Macroeconomics.

Sinclair, Tara with Ed Gamber, H.O. Stekler and Elizabeth Reid, "Jointly Evaluating the Federal Reserve's Forecasts of GDP Growth and Inflation," forthcoming in the International Journal of Forecasting.

Sinclair, Tara with Sinchan Mitra, "Output Fluctuations in the G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach" forthcoming in Macroeconomic Dynamics.


Carrillo, Paul “To Sell or Not to Sell: Measuring the Heat of the Housing Market,” 2013, Real Estate Economics, 41(2), 310-346.

Carrillo, Paul “Testing for Fraud in the Residential Mortgage Market: How much did Early-Payment-Defaults Overpay for Housing?” 2013, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 47(1), 36-64.

Baird, Sarah with Jacobus Joost de Hoop and Berk Özler. ”Income Shocks and Adolescent Mental Health,” Journal of Human Resources, Vol. 48(2), 2013, pp. 370-403.

Aaronson, Susan,“Righting Business: John Ruggie and the Struggle to Develop International Human Rights Standards for Transnational Firms,” Dec. 2013, Human Rights Quarterly

Castleman, Tony with Anema, Aranka, Sarah Fielden, Nils Grede, Amie Heap, and Martin Bloem, "Food Security in the Context of HIV: Towards Harmonized Definitions and Indicators." AIDS and Behavior, November 29, 2013 (Epub ahead of print publication).

Baird, Sarah with Francisco H. G. Ferreira, Berk Özler, Michael Woolcock Relative Effectiveness of Conditional and Unconditional Cash Transfers for Schooling Outcomes in Developing Countries: A Systematic Review,February 9, 2013


Carrillo, Paul with Shahe Emran, “Public Information and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Natural Experiment,” 2012, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 94(4), 860-877.

Carrillo, Paul E. with Jaren Pope, "Are Homes Hot or Cold Potatoes? The Distribution of Marketing Time in the Housing Market," Regional Science and Urban Economics Vol. 42 No. 1-2 pp. 189-197. 2012.

Smith, Stephen C., with Arun Malik, "The Scope of Nongovernmental Organizations and Development Program Design: Application to Problems of Multidimensional Poverty," Public Administration and Development Vol. 32 Issue 4-5, 357-370. October 2012.

Charnovitz, Steve with Daniel C. Esty, "How the United States Can Improve Energy and Climate Policies," World Financial Review, July/August 2012.

Charnovitz, Steve "Correcting America's Continuing Failure to Comply with the Avena Judgment," American Journal of International Law, July 2012.

Smith, Stephen C., with Saudamini Das, "Awareness as an Adaptation Strategy for Reducing Mortality from Heat Waves: Evidence from a Disaster Risk Management Program in India," Climate Change Economics Vol. 3 No. 2. May 2012.

Smith, Stephen C., with Arun Malik, "Adaptation to Climate Change in Low-Income Countries: Lessons from Current Research and Needs from Future Research," Climate Change Economics Vol. 3 No. 2. May 2012.

Castleman, Tony with Gilles Bergeron. " "Program Responses to Acute Malnutrition and Chronic Malnutrition: Divergences and Convergences." Advances in Nutrition March 2012. 3: 242-249.


Carrillo, Paul, with Akashi-Ronquest, Naoko, Bruce Dembling, and Steven Stern, "Measuring the Biases in Self-reported Disability Status: Evidence from Aggregate Data," Applied Economics Letters Vol. 18 No. 11. 2011.

Carrillo, Paul. "Testing for Fraud in the Residential Mortgage Market: How Much Did Early-Payment-Defaults Overpay for Housing?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, pp. 1-29. 2011.

Chen, Maggie Xiaoyang, with Murat Iyigun, "Patent Protection And Strategic Delays In Technology Development: Implications For Economic Growth," Southern Economic Journal Vol. 78 No. 1, pp. 211-232. 2011.

Chen, Maggie Xiaoyang. "Interdependence in multinational production networks," Canadian Journal of Economics Vol. 44 No. 3, pp. 930-956. 2011.

Fostel, Ana with Luis Catao, and Romain Ranciere, "Fiscal Discoveries, Stops and Defaults," Paris School of Economics, 2011.

Fostel, Ana with John Geanakoplos, "Why does bad news increase volatility and decrease leverage?" Journal of Economic Theory, 2011.

Foster, James with Sabina Alkire, "Counting And Multidimensional Poverty Measurement," Journal Of Public Economics Vol. 95 No. 7-8, pp. 476-87. 2011.

Foster, James with Sabina Alkire, "Understandings And Misunderstandings Of Multidimensional Poverty Measurement," Journal Of Economic Inequality Vol. 9 No. 2, pp. 289-314. 2011

Foster, James with Sabina Alkire, "Where did identification go?," Journal of Economic Inequality Vol. 9 No. 3, pp. 501-505. 2011.

Joutz, Fred, withGail Cohan and Prakash Loungani, "Energy Security: Depend, but Diversify," Energy Dialogue, April 2011.

Joutz, Fred, with Gail Cohan and Prakash Loungani, "Measuring energy security: Trends in the diversification of oil and natural gas supplies," Energy Policy Vol. 39, pp.4860-4869. 2011.

Joutz, Fred with C.D. Wei, "Inflation Illusion or No Illusion: What Did Pre- and Post-War Data Say?" Applied Financial Economics, Vol. 21, pp. 1599-1603. 2011.

Moore, Michael O., "Implementing Carbon Tariffs: A Fool's Errand?" The World Economy Vol. 34, pp. 1679-1702. 2011.

Moore, Michael O. with Maurizio Zanardi, "Does Reduced Trade Tax Revenue Affect Government Spending Patterns?" International Tax and Public Finance Vol. 18 No. 5, pp. 555-79. 2011.

Moore, Michael O., with Maurizio Zanardi," Trade Liberalization and Antidumping: Is There a Substitution Effect?," Review of Development Economics Vol. 15 No. 4, pp. 601-619. 2011.

Moore, Michael O. "Argentina: There and Back Again" in The Great Recession and Import Protection, Chad P. Bown (ed.), World Bank, 2011.

Pelzman, Joseph. and Amir Shoham. "What's New in Our World? Thinking about the Great Recession," editor Special Edition. Global Economy Journal, May 2011.

Pelzman, Joseph. The Economics of the Middle East and North Africa (Mena). World Scientific Pub Co, 2011.

Pelzman, Joseph. with Amir Shoham. "A Review Of The Crisis." Global Economy Journal Vol. 11 No. 2, 2011.

Suranovic, Steven, "Addicted to Oil: Implications for Climate Change Policy," November 2011.

Chao Wei, with Santoro, Marika, and "Taxation, Investment And Asset Pricing," Review Of Economic Dynamics, Vol. 14 No. 3, pp. 443-454. 2011.

Fostel, Ana with John Geanakoplos, "Collateral Restrictions and Liquidity Under Supply: A Simple Model," Economic Theory.

Fostel, Ana with Graciela Kaminsky, "Latin America's Access to International Capital Markets: Good Behavior or Global Liquidity?" in Kevin Cowan, Sebastian Edwards, and Rodrigo Valdes (eds) Current Account and External Financing, Central Bank of Chile.

Lustig, Nora, co-editor with Jacques Silber (Bar Ilan University, Israel), special issue of Estudios Economicos - "Poverty and Inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean," El Colegio de Mexico


James E. Foster with Kathryn H. Anderson and David E. Frisvol, "Investing In Health: The Long-Term Impact Of Head Start On Smoking," Economic Inquiry Vol. 48 No. 3, pp. 587-602. 2010.

Chen, Maggie Xiaoyang, and Sumit Joshi, "Third-Country Effects On The Formation Of Free Trade Agreements," Journal Of International Economics Vol. 82 No. 2, pp. 238-248. 2010.

Foster, James, with Joel Greer, and Erik Thorbecke, "The Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) Poverty Measures: 25 Years Later," Journal Of Economic Inequality Vol. 8 No. 4, pp. 491-524. 2010.

Foster, James E., with Michael C. Wolfson, "Polarization And The Decline Of The Middle Class: Canada And The U.S.," Journal Of Economic Inequality Vol. 8 No. 2, pp. 247-273. 2010

Joutz, Frederick L., "Interview With Herman O. Stekler," International Journal Of Forecasting Vol. 26 No. 1, pp. 195-203. 2010.

Fred Joutz with Poonpat Leesombatpiboon, "Sectoral demand for petroleum in Thailand," Energy Economics Vol. 32 No. 1, pp. S15-S25. 2010.

Moore, Michael O., with Alan K. Fox, "Why Don't Foreign Firms Cooperate In US Antidumping Investigations? An Empirical Analysis," Review Of World Economics/Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv Vol. 145 No. 4, pp. 597-613. 2010.

Pelzman, Joseph, with Amir Shoham, "Measuring The Welfare Effects Of Country Of Origin Rules: A Suggested Methodology," Global Economy Journal Vol. 10 No. 1. 2010.

Pelzman, Joseph, with Amir Shoham, "Comparison of PRC and Vietnam's Responses to the Elimination of US Textile and Apparel Quotas: Economic and Cultural Perspectives," International Journal of Business and Emerging Markets, Vol. 2 No. 4, pp. 385-408. 2010.

Sinclair, Tara M. and Fred Joutz, with H. O. Stekler. "Can The Fed Predict The State Of The Economy?," Economics Letters Vol. 108 No. 1, pp. 28-32. 2010.

Sinclair, Tara M., with H. O. Stekler, and L. Kitzinger, "Directional Forecasts Of GDP And Inflation: A Joint Evaluation With An Application To Federal Reserve Predictions," Applied Economics Vol. 42 No. 16-18, pp. 2289-97. 2010.

Wei, Chao, "Inflation And Stock Prices: No Illusion," Journal Of Money, Credit, And Banking Vol. 42 No. 2-3, pp. 325-345. 2010.

Chen, Maggie X. and Michael O. Moore, "Location Decision of Heterogeneous Multinational Firms," Journal of International Economics, Vol. 80, No. 2, pp. 188-199 . March 2010

Emran, M. Shahe with Forhad Shilpi, "Estimating Import Demand Function in Developing Countries: A Structural Econometric Approach with Applications to India and Sri Lanka," Review of International Economics, Vol. 18, No. 2, pp. 307-319. May 2010.

Sinclair, Tara, "Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Vol. 14, No. 1 (2010), pp. 520-542.

Malik, Arun, "How Should We Tackle the Forest Fire Problem?," Ian Parry and Felicia Day (Eds.), Resources for the Future Press,(2010), pp. 134-135.

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Castleman, Tony with Matlisky, Danielle, Kenneth Maleta, and Mark Manary. "Supplementary Feeding with Fortified Spreads Results in Higher Recovery Rates Than with a Corn/Soy Blend in Moderately Wasted Children." Journal of Nutrition. 139: 773-778, 2009.

Carrillo, Paul, with Anthony Yezer, "Alternative Measures Of Homeownership Gaps Across Segregated Neighborhoods," Regional Science And Urban Economics Vol. 39 No. 5, pp. 542-52. 2009.

Carrillo, Paul E., with Juan Ponce Jarrin, "Efficient Delivery Of Subsidies To The Poor: Improving The Design Of A Cash Transfer Program In Ecuador," Journal Of Development Economics Vol. 90 No. 2, pp. 276-284. 2009.

Ana Fostel, with Luis Catao and Sandeep Kapur, "Persistent Gaps And Default Traps," Journal Of Development Economics Vol. 89 No. 2, pp. 271-284. 2009.

Fred Joutz and Angela Poulakidas, "Exploring the link between oil prices and tanker rates," Maritime Policy & Management Vol. 36 No. 3, pp.215-233. 2009.

Pelzman, Joseph, with Amir Shoham, "WTO DSU: Enforcement Issues," in James Hartigan (ed.) Frontiers of Economics and Globalization, Vol. 6 No. 15. Trade Disputes and the Dispute Settlement Understanding of the WTO: An Interdisciplinary Assessment. London: Emerald Group Publishing Ltd. pp. 369-395. 2009.

Wei, Chao, "Does The Stock Market React To Unexpected Inflation Differently Across The Business Cycle?," Applied Financial Economics Vol. 19 No. 22-24, pp. 1947-59. 2009.

Wei, Chao, "A Quartet Of Asset Pricing Models In Nominal And Real Economies," Journal Of Economic Dynamics And Control Vol. 33 No. 1, pp. 154-165. 2009.

Chen, Maggie X., "Regional Economic Integration and Geographic Concentration of Multinational Firms," European Economic Review, Vol. 53, No. 3, pp. 355-375, April 2009.

Sinclair, Tara, with H.O. Stekler, "Forecast evaluation of AveAve forecasts in the global VAR context," International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 25, No. 4, pp. 693-696, October - December 2009.

Sinclair, Tara, "The Relationships between Permanent and Transitory Movements in U.S. Output and the Unemployment Rate," P D F icon Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 41, No. 2-3 (March-April 2009), pp. 520-542.

Malik, Arun, with Christian Crowley, Gregory Amacher and Robert Haight, "Adjacency Externalities and Forest Fire Prevention," Land Economics, Vol. 85, No. 1, pp. 162-185 (2009).

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