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7:45 Registration and breakfast
8:20 Welcome
Dr. Elliot Hirshman, Chief Research Officer,
The George Washington University
Link to: bio
8:30 Opening Address: "Has Financial Development Made the World Safer?"
Dr. Raghuram G. Rajan, Economic Counselor and Director
IMF Research Department
Link to: bio
Link to: Paper
Link to: Presentation
8:55 Q&A
9:00 Session 1: Advances in Modeling and Managing Sovereign Risk
Comments by Chair of Sovereign Risk Sessions
Dr. Graciela Kaminsky, Professor of Economics and International Affairs,
The George Washington University
Link to: bio
9:05 "Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Emerging Markets: The Tale of the Tormented Issuer"
Dr. Enrique Mendoza, Professor of International Economics & Finance,
Department of Economics, University of Maryland
Link to: bio
Link to: Paper
Link to: Presentation
9:25 "The Risk Management Framework of the Brazilian Debt"
Dr. Anderson Silva, Senior Debt Specialist, World Bank / Formerly
Brazilian Ministry of Finance
Dr. Rodrigo Cabral, Brazilian Ministry of Finance
Mr. William Baghdassarian, Brazilian Ministry of Finance
Link to: bio
Link to: Paper
Link to: Presentation
9:45“Modeling and Managing Sovereign Risk in a Jumpy World”
Dr. Theodore Barnhill, Director, GEFRI
Link to: bio
Link to: Paper
Link to: Presentation
10:00 "Discussion of Sovereign Risk Papers"
Dr. Eduardo Ley, Senior Economist,
Link to: bio
Link to: Presentation
IMF, Department of Research
10:15 Q&A on Sovereign Risk Papers
10:30 Coffee Break
10:45 Session 2: Sovereign Risk Assessment and Management: Current Best Practices
Comments by Chair of Sovereign Risk Sessions
Dr. Graciela Kaminsky, Professor of Economics and International Affairs,
The George Washington University
Link to: bio
10:50 Debt Sustainability Assessments--Current Efforts at the International Monetary Fund
Dr. Atish Rex Ghosh, Chief, Policy Review Division,
Policy Development and Review Department,
IMF
Link to: bio
Link to: Presentation
11:15 Sovereign Risk Assessment Methodology of Japan Bank for
International Cooperation
Mr. Toshiyuki Kosugi, Chief Representative in Washington, D.C.,
Former Deputy Director General, Country Risk Analysis Department,
JBIC
Link to: bio
Link to: Presentation
11:40 Q&A on Sovereign Risk Assessment and Management: Current Best Practices
11:55 Summary Comments on Morning Sessions
Dr. Graciela Kaminsky, Professor of Economics and International Affairs,
The George Washington University
12:00 Lunch
2:00 Session 3: Advances in Modeling and Managing Systemic Bank Risk
Welcome to Afternoon Sessions
Dr. Elias Carayannis
Associate Director GEFRI
Link to: bio
Comments by Chair of Systemic Risk Sessions
Dr. Til Schuermann
Research Officer Banking Studies Function,
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Link to: bio
2:05 "Systemic Risk Monitoring of the Austrian Banking System"
Dr. Helmut Elsinger, University of Vienna
Dr. Alfred Lehar, University of Calgaryk
Dr. Martin Summer, Austrian Central Bank
Link to: bio
Link to: Paper
Link to: Presentation
2:30 "Systemic Bank Risk in Brazil: Assessing Correlated Market, Credit, and Sovereign Risk in an Economic Environment with Stochastic Volatilities and Correlations"
Dr. Theodore Barnhill, Director, GEFRI
Link to: bio
Link to: Paper
Link to: Presentation
2:55 "A New Risk Indicator and Stress Testing Tool:
A Multifactor n'th-To-Default CDS Basket"
Dr. Renzo G. Avesani, Monetary and Financial Systems Department, IMF
Dr. Antonio Garcia Pascual, Monetary and Financial Systems Department, IMF
Dr. Jing Li, Monetary and Financial Systems Department, IMF
Link to: bio
Link to: Paper
Link to: Presentation
3:20 "Discussion of Systemic Bank Risk Papers"
Dr. Fernando Montes-Negret, Sector Director, ECSPF, ECA,
The World Bank
Link to: bio
Dr. Andrew Philip Powell
Lead Research Economist, Inter-American Development Bank
Link to: bio
Link to: Presentation
Dr. Til Schuermann
Research Officer Banking Studies Function,
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Link to: Presentation
3:50 Q&A on Systemic Bank Risk Papers
4:00 Coffee Break
4:15 Session 4: Systemic Bank Risk Assessment and Management: Current Best Practices
Comments by Chair of Sovereign Risk Sessions
Dr. Til Schuermann
Research Officer Banking Studies Function,
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
4:20 Perspectives on Financial Sector Risk Assessment Methodologies
Dr. Laura Kodres, Assistant to Director,
IMF Research Department
Link to: bio
Link to: Presentation
4:45 The Use of Quantitative Default Models and Implications for Banking Crises
Dr. Douglas Dwyer, Director,
Moody’s KMV
Link to: bio
Link to: Presentation
5:10 Q&A on Systemic Bank Risk Assessment and Management: Current Best Practices
5:30 Summary Comments on Afternoon Sessions
Dr. Til Schuermann
Research Officer Banking Studies Function,
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
5:40 Closing Remarks
Professor Robert Weiner, Associate Director
GEFRI
Link to: bio
6:00-7:00 Closing / Reception
Link to: Global Finance Conference Registration
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