GW-IMF FORECASTING FORUM

November 15-16, 2012

Program

(in honor of Herman Stekler)

Thursday, November 15, 2012

2:30-2:45 pm Registration

2:45-4:00 pm Chair: Fred Joutz (GWU)

Presenter: Prakash Loungani (IMF)

(joint work with Larry Ball, JHU, and Joao Jalles, OECD)

Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law?

Discussants: Kajal Lahiri (SUNY-Albany)

Tara Sinclair (GWU) [Comments]

4:00-4:15 pm *** Coffee Break ***

4:15-5:30 pm Chair: Xuguang (Simon) Sheng (AU)

Presenter: Neil Ericsson (FRB and GWU)

Detecting and Quantifying Biases in Government Forecasts of U.S. Debt

Discussants: Ed Gamber (Lafayette College)

Danny Bachman (IHS)

Friday, November 16, 2012

10:00–10:30 am *** Coffee & Cookies ***

10:30–11:45 am Chair: Kajal Lahiri (SUNY-Albany)

Presenter: Ulrich Fritsche (Hamburg University)

(Anti-)Herding and Asymmetric Loss Tests: The Case of FX Forecasts (1^st Paper) (2^nd Paper)

Discussants: Robert Fildes (Lancaster)

Jonas Dovern (Kiel Economics Research & Forecasting) [Comments]

11:45-1:15 pm *** Lunch ***

IMF Private Dining Room (HQ1-02-322 & 324)

Remarks: Herman Stekler

1.15-2.30 pm Chair: Robert Fildes (Lancaster)

Presenter: Natalia Tamirisa (IMF)

Information Rigidities in Growth Forecasts

Discussants: Olivier Coibion (UT-Austin and IMF) [Comments]

Andy Levin (FRB and IMF)

2:30–3:45 pm Chair: Peg Young (DoT)

Presenter: Michael Kumhof (IMF)

The Future of Oil: Geology vs. Technology

Discussants: Fred Joutz (GWU)

Chris Erceg (FRB and IMF)

3:45–4:00 pm *** Coffee Break ***

4:00–5.15 pm Chair: Jonas Dovern (Kiel)

Presenter: Massimiliano Marcellino (EUI, Bocconi and CEPR)

Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARs

Discussant: Keith Ord (Georgetown) [Comments]

Xuguang (Simon) Sheng (AU)

Organizing Committee: Fred Joutz, Prakash Loungani, Tara Sinclair, and Natalia Tamirisa.

Coordinators: Hites Ahir and Patricia Medina