November 15-16, 2012



(in honor of Herman Stekler)


Thursday, November 15, 2012


2:30-2:45 pm      Registration


2:45-4:00 pm      Chair: Fred Joutz (GWU)


Presenter:           Prakash Loungani (IMF)

                           (joint work with Larry Ball, JHU, and Joao Jalles, OECD)

                           Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law?


Discussants:       Kajal Lahiri (SUNY-Albany)

                           Tara Sinclair (GWU) [Comments]


4:00-4:15 pm      *** Coffee Break ***


4:15-5:30 pm      Chair: Xuguang (Simon) Sheng (AU) 


Presenter:           Neil Ericsson (FRB and GWU)

                           Detecting and Quantifying Biases in Government Forecasts of U.S. Debt                     


Discussants:       Ed Gamber (Lafayette College)

                           Danny Bachman (IHS)


Friday, November 16, 2012


10:00–10:30 am        *** Coffee & Cookies ***


10:30–11:45 am                  Chair: Kajal Lahiri (SUNY-Albany)


Presenter:           Ulrich Fritsche (Hamburg University)

                           (Anti-)Herding and Asymmetric Loss Tests: The Case of FX Forecasts (1st Paper) (2nd Paper)


Discussants:       Robert Fildes (Lancaster)

                           Jonas Dovern (Kiel Economics Research & Forecasting) [Comments]


11:45-1:15 pm    *** Lunch ***

                        IMF Private Dining Room (HQ1-02-322 & 324)                                                                  

                        Remarks: Herman Stekler


1.15-2.30 pm      Chair: Robert Fildes (Lancaster)


Presenter:           Natalia Tamirisa (IMF)

                           Information Rigidities in Growth Forecasts


Discussants:       Olivier Coibion (UT-Austin and IMF) [Comments]

                           Andy Levin (FRB and IMF)


2:30–3:45 pm     Chair: Peg Young (DoT)


Presenter:           Michael Kumhof (IMF)       

                           The Future of Oil: Geology vs. Technology


Discussants:       Fred Joutz (GWU)

                           Chris Erceg (FRB and IMF)



3:45–4:00 pm       *** Coffee Break ***


4:00–5.15 pm     Chair: Jonas Dovern (Kiel) 


Presenter:           Massimiliano Marcellino (EUI, Bocconi and CEPR)

                           Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARs


Discussant:         Keith Ord (Georgetown) [Comments]

                           Xuguang (Simon) Sheng (AU)




Organizing Committee: Fred Joutz, Prakash Loungani, Tara Sinclair, and Natalia Tamirisa.

Coordinators: Hites Ahir and Patricia Medina