October 2008

Beyond the Headlines: The Middle East Conflict

By Jamie Freedman

It’s nearly impossible to open the newspaper without coming across headlines highlighting the volatile situation in the Middle East. Beset by intense conflict, the politically charged region is attracting widespread scholarly attention at GW.

Last year, GW’s Elliott School of International Affairs launched two parallel initiatives: an M.A. in Middle East studies and a research organization, the Institute for Middle East Studies, both directed by Nathan J. Brown, professor of political science and international affairs. An expert on Middle East politics, as well as democratization, constitutionalism, and rule of law in the Arab world, Dr. Brown takes us behind the headlines, exploring the realities of the conflict and the prospects for peace.

Q: Please briefly explain the roots of the Middle East conflict.
A: If we focus on the Arab-Israeli conflict, it is sometimes seen as something dating back for centuries. But I see it as an essentially modern conflict over national identity and borders. It basically involves the identity and existence of states in the aftermath of the end of the multinational Ottoman Empire.

Q: Who are the main players in the Middle East, and what are the primary sources of conflict?
A: Again, focusing on the Arab-Israeli conflict, one of the trends in recent years has been the growing complexity of the actors. It is not simply Arabs versus Israelis. Instead, there is a conflict between Israelis and Palestinians—a conflict that is increasingly becoming an existential conflict between two groups rather than merely a struggle over borders. And Israel has a series of conflicts with neighboring states that are related to, but sometimes separate from, the conflict with the Palestinians. What has made things even more complex is that the various parties themselves are divided. Israel increasingly seems like a multicultural society and also a politically divided one; the Palestinian divisions—political and geographical—have grown deeper in the past few years.

Q: What are the initial steps required to advance the Arab-Israeli peace process?
A: There is an official peace process in the sense that the leaders are speaking and sometimes negotiating with each other. But this process seems disconnected with realities on the ground, which have only worsened. A revived peace process will require the emergence of strong leaders and institutions on both sides; it will also require reversing the seemingly temporary emergency measures that have been taken to protect security while the peace process disintegrates. I am not optimistic about these things happening.

Q: In your opinion, are there any Arab nations that will eventually become democracies?
A: I think the intellectual atmosphere in the Arab world has grown far more democratic over the past couple decades. People express themselves more freely, and there is a large amount of interest in democracy. But in the realm of institutions and practices, authoritarianism seems only to have grown more adept at managing challenges. I’m not optimistic about the emergence of democracy at least in the short term.

Q: What role does the United States have in advancing the peace process in the Middle East?
A: The United States grew very frustrated with the collapse of the peace process in 2000 and essentially withdrew involvement. Over the past few years, there has been some episodic American activity, but nothing sustained. I think a renewed American enthusiasm is possible after the election, but it will face very high hurdles. At this point, the United States has become far weaker in the region; the two sides are divided and the Palestinian side is in a state of advanced institutional decay. At this point it makes less sense to rush to an agreement that would be concluded, if at all, on paper only, than to focus on ending the disintegration of conditions on the ground.

Q: Do you believe the Middle East conflict will be resolved during our lifetime?
A: I’m not hopeful. I think some of the basic building blocks of the two-state solution have eroded, and no clear alternative is on the horizon.

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