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February 2008 Faculty Focus: John Sides
By Julia Parmley Who will win the 2008 presidential election is anybody’s guess—but political scientists like GW’s John Sides may have a better idea than the rest of us. “Political science teaches us why elections turn out the way they do—that it’s more than just who smiles the prettiest,” says Sides, assistant professor of political science. “We study the systematic factors, such as endorsements and polls, that affect elections.” In addition to his classes on public opinion, political psychology, and the media and politics, Sides conducts research on campaigns, elections, and American politics. On the eve of the Iowa caucus, Sides predicted that Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney would win their parties’ nominations, but cautioned that there are myriad factors that can change election outcomes. One of those factors is endorsements by prominent political leaders in the period before the primaries, which Sides says can be a powerful predictor of who wins the nomination, regardless of a candidate’s poll standing, press coverage, and fundraising abilities. Once the primaries begin, however, “the process can take on a life of its own,” says Sides. “Winning the early states can give a candidate momentum.” He says some economists and political scientists use mathematical models to calculate which party and candidate have the best chance of winning the elections, using factors such as the economy, approval rating of the incumbent president, and the issues voters think are most important. “All of these things have a strong predictive impact on the outcome,” he says. “These models rarely get it wrong. Right now, at least one prominent model is predicting a Democratic victory in 2008 with about 52 percent of the vote.” But in close races, Sides says the speeches at the conventions, as well as the strength of campaigns, can make or break a candidate. In the 2004 presidential race, Sides says Kerry was leading in the polls in the early summer, but lost momentum in the fall after the Democratic convention. “The change in 2004 was because of small, decisive shifts brought about by the campaigns themselves,” says Sides. “The current conditions are calling for a Democratic victory, but the conditions could change this year.” Sides also studies national identity and attitudes toward immigration, including how national identity is forged in a multi-ethnic country, such as Iraq. “If you live in a country with multiple religious and ethnic groups, how can you create a common identity?” asks Sides. “How can you design a political system or government that makes them see themselves as Iraqis first? It’s not clear.” In addition, Sides examines Americans’ attitudes about immigration. He says the majority of the U.S. population’s attitude toward immigration is one of ambivalence. “The public strongly supports border authority and punishment for illegal immigrants and companies that support illegal immigrants,” he says. “But the public is also sympathetic to Bush’s ‘path to citizenship’ plan for immigrants who are already here.” Formerly an assistant professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin, Sides came to GW in 2005. “GW’s Department of Political Science has a very strong group of faculty who do a lot of good research and are also very generous and collegial,” he says. “That makes for a pleasant work environment.” When not working, Sides plays the pipe organ and runs. He also has a political science-oriented blog with two colleagues—themonkeycage.org—and became a first-time father to a son, Ethan, in January. Sides received his undergraduate degree from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in 1996 and master’s degree and doctorate from the University of California at Berkeley. Sides, who hails from Winston-Salem, N.C., says he has always been interested in political science. “Originally, I thought of political science as a springboard to law school, but soon realized that the law held no real interest for me,” he says. “Most political scientists are in the game because politics matters. Politics involves the leaders we choose and the policies they choose. It’s important for us to understand political questions because they affect our lives.”
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