April 5, 2005

Latest Battleground Poll Data Released

Fresh off its success as the most accurate presidential election tracking survey, The George Washington University Battleground 2006 Poll identified Social Security as the leading issue facing the President and Congress for most Americans.

While 76 percent of those questioned said Social Security needs either “major” or “modest changes,” a majority of Americans oppose private accounts (53 percent to 37 percent) no matter how they are described. A majority of Americans (49 percent) believe the Democrats in Congress are more capable of strengthening Social Security.

The recent survey showed remarkable consistency among public opinion on the direction the nation is heading. Between September 2003 and March 2005, the tone of the nation has experienced very little fluctuation in the number of Americans who feel that the country remains on the wrong track, moving from 53 percent in 2003 to 54 percent last month. Those who believe the nation is on the right track have remained steady at 39 percent over that period.

Like the direction of the country, Bush’s job approval (53 percent in favor) and his personal approval (66 percent in favor) have remained relatively unchanged over the past 18 months. Of those surveyed 50 percent felt the President more closely shared their values, while the margin between Republicans and Democrats in Congress was much closer (46 percent versus 43 percent respectively).

Regarding domestic issues the Battleground Poll showed the Democrats have a slight advantage on issues such as holding down federal spending, creating jobs, defending the middle class, making prescription drugs more affordable, and improving education.

Bush continues to maintain sizable advantages on issues such as safeguarding America from a terrorist threat, dealing with Iraq, and holding the line on taxes.

Looking ahead to the 2006 congressional elections, the generic congressional ballot stands at a statistical tie with the Democratic Party at 44 percent and the Republican Party at 41 percent.

“With the exception of President Bush interjecting Social Security reform into the issue matrix and a slight drop-off in Bush haters, there is little that has changed since last November’s presidential election,” said Republican pollster Ed Goeas. “Over the next two years, it will be very interesting to observe whether issues will be defined through the cultural divide between married church goers and single non-church goers, which benefits Republicans, or return to the politics of fear and class warfare that benefits the Democrats.”

Celinda Lake, Democratic pollster, said, “While Americans clearly see the need for strengthening Social Security with minor to modest changes, they are not willing to risk the successful safety net for the nation’s seniors on a radical scheme of privatization. Republican congressional representatives should be concerned that the president’s agenda is turning the spotlight to issues that highlight Republican platform weaknesses.”

In three out of the past four presidential elections — 1992, 1996, and 2004 — the Battleground Poll has registered the most accurate projections of the results.

Graduate School of Political Management Dean Christopher Arterton guides GW’s participation in the GW Battleground Poll and Gelman Library is the official archive for all Battleground Polls.

Send feedback to: bygeorge@gwu.edu