US POLICY CONSIDERATIONS- THE KOREAS AND THE ASIA
PACIFIC
The persistence of tensions between North
and South Korea presents the United States with the challenge of managing
a Cold War-era crisis in the post-Cold War world. The addition of advanced
technologies to the equation further complicates the situation. Advanced
space-based technologies, military, civil and commercial, can have a
significant impact on the dynamics of international security and
international relations. On the Korean peninsula, advanced technologies
have raised the stakes of a potential conflict and have added new
dimensions to the already complex South Korea-North Korea-United States
security relationship. In future years, further technological developments
may substantially alter the dynamics of the inter-Korean relationship.
While North Korea and South Korea have
followed very different paths since the end of the Cold War there are
certain interesting convergences between the two nations. Both North Korea
and South Korea have focused, to a certain extent, on the development of
advanced technologies, including space-based technologies. For North
Korea, advanced and space-based technologies are relevant because of their
military utility. On the other hand, while South Korea has modernized its
military, its most significant technological developments have been
civilian and commercial. Both nations are attempting to improve their
capabilities in space, though for very different reasons.
While both Koreas have become increasingly
aware of the potential benefits of space power, at this point space has
only a tangential role in the complex Korean relationship. Today, North
Korea has only a slight claim to space capabilities, as most of its
"space" technologies are quasi-space, military technologies. While North
Korea's development of longer range missile, and its implied mastery of
space-applicable missile technology, has increased its ability to threaten
the US, South Korea has long been aware of a certain vulnerability to
North Korean attacks, with or without North Korean space power or long
range missiles. South Korea's space activities have not affected
intra-Korean relations directly, but have, instead, helped further
integrate South Korea into the ranks of the world's developed nations.
South Korea's efforts to make itself economically indispensable to a
number of nations, including the US, enhance its overall security
situation.
Space power and capabilities thus factor
indirectly, but still significantly, into the US-North Korea-South Korea
security nexus. North Korea's capable military, including its increasingly
advanced missiles, increases its ability to threaten South Korea and US
troops posted there. North Korea's current missile developments not only
attracts enormous international attention, and international aid, but also
lays the groundwork for the eventual ability to access and exploit space.
A successful North Korean launch of a satellite would be a powerful
symbolic demonstration of strength. The United States is particularly
sensitive to proliferation of space-associated prestige because of its own
tendency to view space as a key area of national power. South Korea's
recent decision to pursue an independent missile capability also likely
results as much from the desire for the prestige and independence this
would grant them as from the desire to defend itself against North Korea.
The United States faces low direct risk
from North Korea. The main threat is that North Korea might attempt to use
its chemical or biological weapons against US allies, such as South Korea
or Japan, or potentially against the United States itself. Such an attack
could possibly, but not necessarily, imply a use of the DPRK's ballistic
missiles as a delivery system. While the risks posed by North Korea are
not directly related to space power, some have suggested there is a
possibility that North Korea may be able to damage US space assets. Some
experts believe there is a chance that North Korea is "capable of
producing an IRBM with a nuclear payload to conduct ASAT operations." 1 As noted above, the
DPRK's space systems are currently too primitive to pose a significant
threat to its Asian neighbors, let alone the to the United States.
North Korea certainly poses a greater
threat to its Asian neighbors than to the United States. North Korean
conventional forces continue to pose a significant threat to South Korea,
because of North Korea's residual military power, proximity, and its
long-standing enmity- as seen in North Korea's earlier threats to turn
Seoul and South Korea's heartland into "a sea of fire." 2 However, given both the
"serious deterioration in North Korea's conventional arms war fighting
capability," 3 and the
recent summit and inter-Korean rapprochement, the likelihood of immediate
North Korean aggression against South Korea has decreased.
As demonstrated by the 1998 over-flight of
Japan by a North Korean missile, North Korea represents a potential
military threat to Japan. However, because of the DPRK's focus upon South
Korea, and Japan's willingness to grant food aid to North Korea, this
threat is not likely to materialize. China faces little direct threat from
North Korea - both because North Korea considers China a possible ally,
and because of China's significant military capabilities. North Korea
does, however, pose a significant indirect threat to any number of
nations- including China- through its role in the proliferation of missile
technologies, and because of its weapons of mass destruction. North Korea
is, indeed, a "nation of concern."
A successful North Korean satellite
launch, while not a military threat, could spur space developments in the
rest of the Asia-Pacific. Because of the similarity between launch and
missile technologies, the resultant technologies could easily be applied-
as missiles- in future conflicts. One additional concern is the possible
impact of US missile defense on North Korean policy. While the North
Korean missile programs are only partially determined by US military
actions, it is likely that the US deployment of missile defense would
result in a more robust North Korean missile program. 4
South Korea plays a key role in Asian
development and security. The United States has a vested interest in South
Korea's continued survival and prosperity. The ROK's existence and the US
presence has served to provide some much-needed regional stability. It is
likely that without the US military presence in the region, South Korea
would not have survived as an independent nation. A continued friendly US
relationship with South Korea is a political, economic, and military
necessity, for both nations. The United States places a high value upon
maintaining economic ties with the growing South Korean economy. Keeping
close ties with the South Korean military also allows US military
contractors to sell their goods to South Korea.
South Korea's dominant national security
threat and focus remains North Korea. While there is a healthy distrust of
the DPRK's recent overtures, South Korea will continue to pursue them as
far as possible. Peace with North Korea would have enormous and immediate
political and security benefits and eventual economic benefits, whereas
war with North Korea would be devastating. South Korea continues to hope
for peace, but ready itself for war.
China may pose a significant threat to
South Korea. China intends to be a regional hegemon, and increase its
influence in Asia. Although China and North Korea are not allies, it is in
China's interests to have another Asian nation willing to challenge US
power. It is highly unlikely that China would contemplate an attack on
South Korea any time in the near future, but China's strength and regional
role cannot be ignored.
Other regional players see South Korea as
a potential threat, in large part because of its ties to the United
States. The United States plays a central role in South Korea's defense;
thus any nation that argues with South Korea finds itself indirectly
arguing with the US. South Korea also has close ties with the military
industrial complexes of other western nations. South Korea's ability to
obtain military technology from a variety of nations lessens its
dependence on the United States, and increases its potential power. The
ROK's allies have also granted it generous access to a variety of space
services. South Korea has impressive access to, and ability to use,
space-based technologies. South Korea can be considered a world space
power by proxy.
IMPLICATIONS OF ADVANCED AND SPACE-BASED TECHNOLOGIES IN THE PACIFIC
RIM
North Korea has an extremely limited
ability to access space. The key question is, to what degree will North
Korea be able to turn its nascent space capabilities into a strategic
asset? This is difficult to assess, in part because of the challenge of
obtaining accurate and detailed information about North Korea's true
scientific, technological, and military capabilities. As well, true
assessment of North Korea's potential uses of space depends at least as
much upon their internal goals and intentions vis-à-vis space as upon any
external definitions.
Even were North Korea's economic and
humanitarian conditions suddenly to improve to the point where North Korea
could freely develop its space capabilities, certain obstacles and risks
inherent to space capabilities would persist. Given the authoritarian
nature of the DPRK, access to Western information and media could be
extremely de-stabilizing. The North Korean focus on space and other
advanced technologies suggests a substantial investment in scientific
development, and the creation of a scientific elite whose loyalty the
government must maintain. Thus, North Korean poverty has actually helped
preserve the regime by making it easier to restrict access to foreign
information to the greatest degree possible. Indeed, "the third component
of the North Korean survival strategy has been to continue to isolate
North Korea from the outside world...." 5 At North Korea's current level of
development, the tension between Western information, and the dictates of
a closed and ideologically constrained society is a latent one,- but its
future emergence cannot be disregarded.
By contrast, South Korea is
technologically advanced, economically developed, well integrated into the
world community, and militarily non-aggressive. South Korea has excellent
access to advanced technologies, both from the United States and from
other Western nations. South Korea's economic development has demonstrated
the remarkable economic benefits of technical ability. While South Korea
has concentrated on the civil and commercial benefits of space-based
technologies, the DPRK's more militaristic stance has led it to pursue
space-based technologies for military means.
South Korea, long content to be a space
power by proxy, is now seeking to broaden its space capabilities. Not only
do space-related capabilities still carry a special prestige, but they are
more and more becoming a prerequisite to conducting modern warfare. South
Korea's pursuit of remote sensing capabilities, launch technologies, and
the diversification of its defense contractors suggests a desire to lessen
its dependence on foreign capabilities. An indigenous spacepower would
benefit South Korea economically and could allow it to garner the military
benefits of space power. South Korea's pursuit of space capabilities is
truly the pursuit of dual-use space capabilities, of the multi-faceted
benefits of investment in space technologies.
Just as advances in missile technology and
conventional weapons have increased tensions on the Korean peninsula, so
too might advances in space technologies. Today, both the ROK's
technological advantages (many of which have been bought or borrowed from
the West), and the DPRK's technological and military capabilities
(originating in part from Russian and Chinese sources) have the potential
to de-stabilize the region. In the near future, the ROK's next generations
of space technology may disturb the precarious balance between the Koreas.
Even if South Korea has no intention of capitalizing on the military
benefits of high-resolution remote sensing, and indigenous launch
capability, its neighbors will have no guarantee of, or trust in, South
Korea's intentions. South Korea's increasing capabilities in space-based
technologies could re-initiate an arms race, or initiate a space race,
between the Koreas. Either an arms or a space race could draw in other
regional powers. The result would be an increasingly tense and dangerous
environment in East Asia.
CONCLUSION
As noted elsewhere, the United States is
faced with substantial challenges and complexities in Asia. Dealing with
long-standing conflicts has become even more challenging with the spread
of advanced technologies throughout the region. Space capabilities have
the potential either to enhance or damage security on the Korean
peninsula.
While North Korea does not, at this time,
pose a significant direct threat to the United States or its allies, it
retains the potential to be a serious future threat. US policy makers must
explore alternate ways of gaining leverage and making contact with North
Korea. One policy may be to use North Korea's interest in space as an
opening to North Korea. North Korea's pursuit of high technology and
space-based capabilities can be seen as an attempt on its part to create
new options for power and to strengthen its precarious security situation.
The recent violations of the Juche ideal forced on North Korea by its poor
economic situation (including the necessity of accepting humanitarian aid)
are an affront to the North Korean psyche, and tend to make North Korean
leaders unwilling to compromise. Direct US attempts to force North Korea
to abandon its military quasi-space programs have been unsuccessful, and
have only hardened the North Korean leaders' resolve to stand up to the
United States. While North Korea's enhancement of its space and missile
technologies are a very real concern, at this point the United States has
little leverage with North Korea. The real US problem is not necessarily a
North Korean space program per se, but a North Korean military space
program. Thus, a North Korean civil space program, while not necessarily
appealing, because of the inherently dual-use aspects of much space
technology, would not be an unmanageable threat to US interests. The
United States may be able to enhance its leverage with North Korea by
enabling and encouraging North Korea's pursuit of a less dangerous, more
peaceful variant of space power. If the United States can simultaneously
make North Korean achievement of civil space capabilities possible and
valuable, and allow North Korea to preserve its autonomy, such a policy
might be successful.
While South Korea remains a staunch US
ally, South Korea's pursuit of independent space power has the potential
to threaten US interests in several ways. If South Korea further develops
its space power, it may eventually challenge US commercial space
interests. As well, the dual use potential of South Korea's growing space
power may lead to increasing tensions in the region- and a potentially
de-stabilizing Asian space race. Additionally, the proliferation of space
capabilities, even to a friendly nation such as South Korea, raises the
possibility of technology transfer from the civil to the military sector,
or from a friendly power to a hostile one.
Advanced space-based technologies are
increasingly integral to the security calculus in the Koreas, and in the
Asia-Pacific as a whole. Given the highly advanced nature of US space
capabilities, and the relative primitiveness of the Koreas' (especially
North Korea's) space capabilities, it can be easy to dismiss space as an
irrelevant side-issue. However, to dismiss space is to ignore both the
real dangers and the potential benefits presented by the accelerating
developments in space power and space technologies, on the Korean
peninsula and beyond.
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