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November 2, 2004

CONTACT: Tracy Schario
(202) 994-3566;


WASHINGTON - The Republican and Democratic pollsters of The George Washington University Battleground 2004 Poll announce their predictions for today's presidential election.

 Ed Goeas, Republican pollster and president and CEO of The Tarrance Group, predicts an election victory for President George W. Bush. While a statistical dead heat, The Tarrance Group predicts:  51.2% Bush; 47.8% Kerry.  For an overview of predictions since the 1992 presidential election, visit

Celinda Lake, Democratic pollster and president of Lake Snell Perry and Associates, predicts a slim margin of victory for Sen. John Kerry.  She said, "With Democrats' uniquely superior turnout efforts, we predict the following outcome: 50.7% Kerry; 48.6% Bush; and 0.7% Nader/other."

 Christopher Arterton, dean of The George Washington University Graduate School of Political Management and liaison for the GW-Battleground 2004 Poll, said, "Tuesday's presidential election outcome depends, in large part, on voter turnout and the absence of litigation.  The youth vote, the minority vote, electronic voting, provisional ballots, and last minute attack ads are converging to create one of the most anticipated election outcomes in modern history."

 The GW-Battleground 2004 Polls surveyed registered likely voters nationwide and yield a margin of error of + 3.1%.  For results of the GW-Battleground 2004 Tracking Poll completed Oct. 31 and Nov. 1, 2004, visit
 This nationally recognized series of scientific surveys is unique to the industry, in that it offers the distinct perspectives of two top pollsters from different sides of the aisle.  The George Washington University is the sponsor of the GW-Battleground Poll, a highly regarded, bi-partisan election survey conducted by top polling firms Lake Snell Perry and Associates and The Tarrance Group.  GW's role in the poll is guided by the University's Graduate School of Political Management.  The University also was recently recognized as the "Hottest School for Political Junkies" in the 2005 Kaplan/Newsweek How to Get Into College guide for the second time in three years.

The GW-Battleground 2004 Poll data are available at or

For more news about GW, visit the GW News Center at

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